Barring the unlikely possibility that either the pro-Olive or anti-Olive side blinks, there are three possible outcomes from this Saturday's meeting on the leadership review motion:

1. The Motion Passes - a leadership review will be held prior to the next election.

2. The Motion Fails - a leadership review will be held after the next election.

3. The meeting refers motion to a future Annual/Special meeting - leadership review issue placed in limbo.

Any thoughts on likely fallout from any of the options?

I wouldn't believe they're pushing for leadership review without some other candidate in mind. Who they start promoting, that will be what's interesting. Right now I can't name any names that could be the new face of the PC.

There are more threads about the Tory meeting tan there are about important issues.

This whole meeting is nothing but bad drama and the airing of the Tories dirty laundry in public.

No matter what the outcome of the meeting is the damage that has been done to the Conservative Party of PEI will be long lasting and far reaching.

This whole stunt has most likely made sure Robert Ghiz will get his thrid term

Number 3 isn't possible. It would have to be ruled out of order under Roberts Rules of Order. That can't happen because due notice was served to all necessary offices and members (the Secretary, followed by the general membership).

So far as I can tell.... Scenario 1 (which is the most likely) is that the motion passes. In that scenario there are two possibilities:
a) A leadership review vote is scheduled sometime this Spring which Olive will lose. I say that because it has become clear that Olive has dedicated everything she has left to defeat this motion. She need 50%+1 to win on this motion. However, if she loses here, on the leadership review she requires 60%+1. It's unlikely that after making a full court press here she can pull things together for the actual leadership review.
b) After losing on the motion and the Executive slate she is putting forward at the AGM Olive will realize she cannot continue on her present course and will either from exhaustion or loyalty to the party above personal ambition (some argue she doesn't understand this concept) Olive will resign without a review being held.

Scenario 2 Olive successfully defeats the motion on the leadership review and wins the Executive slate she had put forward. She will then argue that no leadership review is necessary. The Guardian, CBC, political commentators, and others will immediately scream bloody murder and point to this entire process as evidence that a leadership review is absolutely necessary. Unless Olive wins by over 90% support (which is clearly not going to happen) it will be argued that she is weakened, embattled, and in dire need to demonstrate support. She will be called upon to ask for a leadership review herself. If she doesn't, these questions will re-surface from Team Liberal in Spring 2015.

Now there are two possibilities in Scenario 2.
A) Olive tries to take the proverbial execution squad to everyone in the party who advanced this motion, causing deep and irreparable rifts within the party. Olive refuses to endorse a leadership review herself and the portion of the party that questions her leadership feels they have nothing left to lose and gets far more aggressive.
B) Olive wins and attempts to put the divisions she has caused since 2007 behind her. She tries to build a Big Tent and embraces those who opposed her. She attempts to repair the party and take the high road, calling on everyone who openly opposed her to put their differences aside and build a stronger working relationship. Knowing Olive, I would say there is a 3% chance of this happening. Olive is a vendetta type of person.

If the motion is defeated, the only people who will scream bloody murder are the folks trying to pass the motion. It's funny that the ones that pursued this motion and their supporters keep going on about how it's a democratic process. Now you are saying if the motion is defeated, she should step down anyway? Where is the democracy in that? If the motion passed by 55% or something, maybe you'd have an argument, but she certainly doesn't have to have 90% support to continue as leader.

She sits at like 22% in the polls and can't build a consensus in her own party let alone with independent voters and loosely affiliated Liberals.

It's pretty obvious that she needs to go if she doesn't get a strong endorsement from her party membership. Looks like she won't get that since she screams "witch!" every time someone stands up to speak.

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/News/Local ... C-leader/1

I’m a woman of principle. People will say you can’t trust politicians and so on. I’m sorry, but you’re looking at an honest politician. What you see is what you get … I work for Islanders and I work for our party.”


Islandguy902 is this what you fear?

No I'm afraid of her gross incompetence in the face of the most corrupt government we've had in a century.

Saturday will be a goooooood day for PEI. Olive will be gone by the Spring.

You are answering a question asked to Islandguy902 using "I'm" Are you saying that you are islandguy902, or is this your separate point of view?

Scenario 3 is possible but unlikely. If someone makes a motion to move it to a special or later meeting due to heated discussion, and the crowd votes in favor of it, it passes. That would not be out of order.

If the motion is defeated, the majority of the party has said it does not want a leadership review. At that time, the issue is dead and all of the Olive haters might as well just get use to the idea of her as the leader in the next election. Not only would there be no reason or cause for Olive to put forward a leadership review, but to do so would be her acting against the wishes of 50+ percent of her party.

Regardless of the outcome, Olive Cranes leadership, and the Party in whole are weakened by this public display of infighting.

I think it's pretty clear this party has more problems than just who the leader is.

I think it's pretty clear this party has more problems than just who the leader is.

I suspect Scenario 1 is most likely. From talking to a lot of conservatives, it appears that there are 3 camps. There are the obvious 2.....Olive detractors, and Olive supporters. However, the 3 camp is made of people who like Olive, but are sick of all the infighting and leadership questions that they will support the motion just to finally put this to rest. This is a large group and includes a lot of Olive supporters from her own riding. The Olive supporters will be livid if this motion passes. Many are strong conservatives and would be hard pressed to vote any other party, but would consider abstaining next election. This will create some devide in the party.

Scenario 2 is not as likely as there are 2 groups voting for the motion and only 1 against. Then there is no leadership review. The back room is even more disgruntled, but will likely have to whine and moan a little quieter and to themselves. They will likely work to cut the legs out from under Olive from behind the scenes and will still plot to "over throw her" Big devide in the party.

Scenario 3 is the least likely scenario. It would keep Olive in for the next election, but leave all the nagging questions from within about her leadership. (unless the special meeting was within the next 6 monthes) This would likely garuntee Ghiz or the Liberals another term

I for one don't question her principle or trust.I do question if she is the right leader for the party;the answer is no as people within her own party will not vote pc,me being one of them.
She polls lower than Bush did and she never went to war............

I agree that people in her own party won't vote for her and that is why she needs to go. But for the record, 64% picked Bush to win over Kerry and Bush typically had a favorable polling rating in the mid 40s
http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm

Are you referring to the Binn's government?
I would say they were only the second most corrupt and it hasn't been a century.

Determining which of our recent governments was/is the least corrupt is a difficult task.

It's like trying to pick up a dog turd by the clean end.

Ed

I suspect there will be a good turnout from both the pro-Olive and anti-Olive forces. From the names I have seen attached with each group, the pro-Olive group has a stronger record of delivering votes at Party gatherings.

Nonetheless, the meeting itself will matter. The motion will have to be debated and then there is the widely anticipted speech by Olive. A strong performance or a serious mistake by either side could tip the balance.

It's will be a "high noon" event.

Too funny.

New account?

You know what i am hearing? I was talking to a blue blood (as he calls himself) and i asked him what this was all about.
This is his perspective on what's happening.It all started when Mr.Ballem was voted out,this was not suppost to happen.It was a race between him and Fox ,with Fox comming in a close second.So Crane comes out of nowhere and wins the leadership and the back room does not approve.So they work together somewhat up till now and finds Crane does not want to be a puppet for them.So what has to be done ,Crane has to go, so the backroom regains the power behind the party.So now we see this in the media to try to gain support to boot Crane out.

Is this what is really happening?