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 Post subject: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 17th, 2015, 7:19 pm 
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From Away

Joined: October 29th, 2006, 10:27 pm
Posts: 60
Location: East Prince, PEI
Wow....... has this place died?

In the midst of a PEI Provincial Election, and not 1 thread dedicated to it? There is a bit of relevance in the "Ghiz et al." thread, but let's dedicate this space to "coffee shop" chatter.

Any thoughts so far?

Wade and Ranald sparing?

Rob's attack ads?

Wade asking for the stop of attack ads?

Peter's signs vandalized?

Trudeau campaigning on the Provincial front?




Do I feel that the Green Party or NDP have a chance at winning even one seat? No. I feel that they will have stronger showings in certain ridings, but not enough to win a seat.

Personally, I feel that the Liberals are running scared. Perhaps this is for good reason. Wade has said that he wants transparent government, but will not promise to look into his predecessors actions on e-gaming, PNP, etc...... This is anything but transparent. I have heard somebody refer to him as Wade McGhiz, and perhaps this is fitting as the contempt for the people of PEI seems to be same old, same old as the last administration.

Do I condone the attack ads the PC's are running? No. Do I feel that the information is relevant, and should be relayed to the population? Yes. I understand that Wade has not been the Premier for long, and that most of the big questions happened before him. When Wade won the leadership of the Liberal party (coronation......but that is another story), he inherited the right to be Premier of PEI without one single person voting for him. This gave him a distinct advantage entering this election. He has been able to be in the spotlight, as Premier, for a few months making announcements, and setting PEI policy as he sees fit before he called an election. Do I fault him for this? No. In the same breath, as he inherited the advantages of being the party in power, he also inherited the downside.......the baggage.

I feel very strongly that it is the job of the 3 non-governing parties to hold the governing party's feet to the fire, and demand answers for their actions during the last term. This is what democracy is all about. The governing party has no right to ask the electorate to put on blinders and vote for them only on promises going forward. I feel that it is the right of the electorate to have explanations regarding the past decisions made by the governing party, and any attempt to cover over these answers scare me. I feel by not providing answers to the questions, it proves that there is no will to improve on transparency.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 17th, 2015, 9:58 pm 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: November 16th, 2014, 12:56 am
Posts: 286
Wade and Ranald sparing?
Non-story, but I personally don't think it is good form for a political opponent to do this at an event stop.

Rob's attack ads?
I don't really consider them to be attack ads unless stating the truth has somehow become an attack.

Wade asking for the stop of attack ads?
He should concentrate on answering the issues brought up in the ads. It would show a little more substance.

Peter's signs vandalized?
Nothing more than an act of a coward and petty vandal.

Trudeau campaigning on the Provincial front?
I doubt it will sway any voters. Islanders vote local.




Do I feel that the Green Party or NDP have a chance at winning even one seat? No. I feel that they will have stronger showings in certain ridings, but not enough to win a seat.

I disagree. I think Peter BB has a solid chance in his riding. Gord McNeilly, Jacqueline Tuplin and Mike Redmond all have a shot. Peter Meggs would have a better shot if he was from district 15, not district 16.


Personally, I feel that the Liberals are running scared. Perhaps this is for good reason. Wade has said that he wants transparent government, but will not promise to look into his predecessors actions on e-gaming, PNP, etc...... This is anything but transparent. I have heard somebody refer to him as Wade McGhiz, and perhaps this is fitting as the contempt for the people of PEI seems to be same old, same old as the last administration.

I don't think the Liberals are running scared. Controlling the election date gave them the upper hand. It was very predictable they would call an early election to not allow the other parties to build up to an election that was supposed to be "fixed date".
Too many people are fooled by the change of window dressing in the liberal party.


I feel very strongly that it is the job of the 3 non-governing parties to hold the governing party's feet to the fire, and demand answers for their actions during the last term. This is what democracy is all about. The governing party has no right to ask the electorate to put on blinders and vote for them only on promises going forward. I feel that it is the right of the electorate to have explanations regarding the past decisions made by the governing party, and any attempt to cover over these answers scare me. I feel by not providing answers to the questions, it proves that there is no will to improve on transparency.

That is for the electorate to decide and unfortunately the will of the PEI electorate does not seem to be toward any change at all. It is hard for an opposition party to hold a governing party accountable when they are guilty of all the same sins.
Third parties on PEI get very little press at the best of times and even less when it comes to pointing out the wrongdoings of government. Questions have been asked over and over and over again in public and in the house but answers are rarely provided. Read a few editions of the Hansard and it won't take long to figure that out.
So in reality the 3 non-governing parties have done their jobs. If the electorate is content to re-elect a party that leaves those questions unanswered then shame on us.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 18th, 2015, 12:47 pm 
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New Member

Joined: September 6th, 2014, 6:41 pm
Posts: 18
At the end of the day, I do not see a change in government this time. Here is what could happen election night in the different ridings:

Liberals 20, Tories 7

1- Colin Lavie- Tory
2- Stephan Myers- Tory
3- Allen Roach- Liberal (Tory finishes 3rd behind Mike Redmond)
4- Darlene Compton- Tory
5- Alan McIsaac – Liberal
6- James Aylward- Tory
7- Sidney MacEwen- Tory
8- Buck Watts- Liberal
9-Wade – Liberal
10- Robert Mitchell- Liberal (will win every poll)
11- Doug Currie- Liberal (will win every poll)
12- Richard Brown- Liberal
13- Rob Lantz- Tory (will only squeak in)
14- Kathleen Casey- liberal (tory finishes 3rd)
15- Bush Dumville – Liberal-(was going Tory but now Liberal)
16- Heath MacDonald- Liberal
17- Valerie Docherty – Liberal (Tory finishes 3rd behind Green leader)
18- Bertha Campbell- Liberal
19- Ramona Roberts – Liberal
20- Matt MacKay - Tory
21- Janice Sherry – Liberal
22- Tina Mundy –Liberal
23- Paula Biggar- Liberal
24- Sonny Gallant- Liberal
25- Rob Henderson- Liberal
26- Pat Murphy- Liberal
27- Hal Perry- Liberal


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 18th, 2015, 7:35 pm 
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True Islander

Joined: August 23rd, 2005, 11:52 am
Posts: 11991
Location: Summerside
I think Wade's reaction to Ranald's questions was pretty condescending. I don't see anything wrong with Ranald asking questions at the event. Wade opened it up to questions so Ranald asked.

As for the ads, they are clearly attack ads. Only PC supporters seem to argue they aren't. Wade's calls for the ads to stop, while making jabs at the PC's in public, are pretty disingenuous.

Political signs are destroyed every year but the destruction of Peter's signs seemed a little more aggressive than others. Plus, Peter only has a handful of signs and a limited budget unlike the other parties. It's strange that someone would target his signs.

I think Trudeau coming motivated the Liberals but I doubt it will have any effect on the campaign. I think it just highlights Trudeau's hypocrisy on the abortion issue. Every Liberal MP has to be pro-choice but he has no objection to a provincial Liberal government that refuses to provide abortion services on the island because they somehow think the status quo is acceptable? The status quo is deplorable.

I think the other two parties have a real chance at breaking through this election. I really hope Islanders elect at least one NDP and Green member. I predict another Liberal government. I like Rob Lantz but I don't think he's quite ready yet. If he gets in and stays on as leader it could make for an interesting election in 2019.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 6:29 am 
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Tourist

Joined: January 20th, 2015, 2:36 pm
Posts: 23
Dr. Pepper wrote:
At the end of the day, I do not see a change in government this time. Here is what could happen election night in the different ridings:

Liberals 20, Tories 7

1- Colin Lavie- Tory
2- Stephan Myers- Tory
3- Allen Roach- Liberal (Tory finishes 3rd behind Mike Redmond)
4- Darlene Compton- Tory
5- Alan McIsaac – Liberal
6- James Aylward- Tory
7- Sidney MacEwen- Tory
8- Buck Watts- Liberal
9-Wade – Liberal
10- Robert Mitchell- Liberal (will win every poll)
11- Doug Currie- Liberal (will win every poll)
12- Richard Brown- Liberal
13- Rob Lantz- Tory (will only squeak in)
14- Kathleen Casey- liberal (tory finishes 3rd)
15- Bush Dumville – Liberal-(was going Tory but now Liberal)
16- Heath MacDonald- Liberal
17- Valerie Docherty – Liberal (Tory finishes 3rd behind Green leader)
18- Bertha Campbell- Liberal
19- Ramona Roberts – Liberal
20- Matt MacKay - Tory
21- Janice Sherry – Liberal
22- Tina Mundy –Liberal
23- Paula Biggar- Liberal
24- Sonny Gallant- Liberal
25- Rob Henderson- Liberal
26- Pat Murphy- Liberal
27- Hal Perry- Liberal

Interesting thoughts. Concur, except, Aylward will not win. His victory last election was more a rebellion against Dunsford, who was a waste of a seat. Aylward will loose big. As well, Hal Perry will not win. He lost his second term the day he crossed the floor.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 8:40 am 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: May 19th, 2010, 7:53 pm
Posts: 131
Generally agree. District 13 may prove problematic for LANTZ. In the earlier stages he took the seat for granted. Liberal candidate has impressed with his strong resume and strong organizational muscle.

Brighton will have to choose between an Opposition Leader or potential Cabinet Minister. Stay tunehttp://www.peiinfo.com/forums/posti ... d0ece7ea#d!


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 8:48 am 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: November 16th, 2014, 12:56 am
Posts: 286
Not so sure that Dunphy is going to do so well against Aylward after dumping the town of Stratford.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 9:27 am 
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New Member

Joined: September 6th, 2014, 6:41 pm
Posts: 18
Lantz will have a dog fight in his riding with Jordan Brown. I picked Lantz but it will be tight. Also Stratford will be really tight as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 9:31 am 
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New Member

Joined: September 6th, 2014, 6:41 pm
Posts: 18
Ramona Roberts, Bertha Campbell, Jordan Brown and David Dunphy could all be in cabinet I would suggest so residents would need to decide to we want a back bench opposition member or a cabinet minister? Should be interesting watching the polls come in.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 7:25 pm 
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Junior Member

Joined: June 3rd, 2007, 9:00 pm
Posts: 588
Location: Charlottetown
I can't see Kathleen Casey winning. She was demoted by Premier Ghiz from Speaker to backbencher. She has done nothing for her riding and really isn't very friendly. I expect Gord McNeilly will do a great job drawing left leaning Liberals to the NDP and I see Diane Young winning District 14.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 7:57 pm 
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New Member

Joined: September 6th, 2014, 6:41 pm
Posts: 18
Reggie The Shark wrote:
I can't see Kathleen Casey winning. She was demoted by Premier Ghiz from Speaker to backbencher. She has done nothing for her riding and really isn't very friendly. I expect Gord McNeilly will do a great job drawing left leaning Liberals to the NDP and I see Diane Young winning District 14.



This district will be tight


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 19th, 2015, 9:07 pm 
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Tourist

Joined: January 20th, 2015, 2:36 pm
Posts: 23
Casey will win this easily, with Mceneily second.
Young is not being well received on the door step.
If McNeily was a tory, I would give the district to him.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 20th, 2015, 5:21 pm 
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Newly Created Account

Joined: August 2nd, 2013, 9:10 am
Posts: 4
I believe it will be a Liberal government after May 4th but it will much closer in terms of seat count
Right now I have it

Liberals 17 Progressive Conservatives 10

District 1 PC Colin Lavie
District 2 PC Steven Myers safest Tory seat on PEI
District 3 PC Andy Daggett was leaning Liberal but believe Redmond will take votes away from Roach to give PC the win
District 4 PC Darlene Compton easily
District 5 LIB Alan MacIssac replay of 2011 election with the same result may have been different with John Jefferies as candidate
District 6 PC James Aylward not as close as everyone thinks. Dunphy hurt by jumping to provincial so quick after mayoral election
District 7 PC Sidney MacEwen connection to Olive will help MacEwen win
District 8 LIB Buck Watts
District 9 LIB Wade
District 10 LIB Rob Mitchell big win Should be cabinet
District 11 LIB Doug Currie
District 12 LIB Richard Brown
District 13 PC Rob Lantz will be a very comfortable win
District 14 LIB Kathleen Casey this one could change as NDP is making a charge here
District 15 LIB Bush Dumville SHould have been an easy Tory pickup that will fall back to the Liberals
District 16 LIB Heath MacDonald with the Ronnie election team behind him and an unknown Tory will be a pretty easy victory
District 17 LIB Valerie Docherty should have been a Tory gain but a weak candidate have sank those chances Tory will still finish 2nd ahead of Bevan Baker ( barely)
District 18 PC Brad Trivers will be close but TRivers will pull it out thanks to his campaigning from 2011 to now
District 19 PC Jamie Fox close but a pick up
District 20 PC Matt MacKay will be helped by the Sheridan factor
District 21 LIB Janice Sherry
District 22- LIB Tina Mundy
District 23- LIB Paula Biggar
District 24 LIB Sonny Gallant Montgomery has impressed for the Tories so far positioning herself for another run in 2019
District 25 LIB Rob Henderson
District 26 LIB Pat Murphy The Tory candidate Griffin is well liked and is closing the gap so this could change
District 27 LIB Hal Perry could go Tory if the Liberals don't stop in fighting


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 20th, 2015, 7:43 pm 
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New Member

Joined: September 6th, 2014, 6:41 pm
Posts: 18
redtory1 wrote:
I believe it will be a Liberal government after May 4th but it will much closer in terms of seat count
Right now I have it

Liberals 17 Progressive Conservatives 10

District 1 PC Colin Lavie
District 2 PC Steven Myers safest Tory seat on PEI
District 3 PC Andy Daggett was leaning Liberal but believe Redmond will take votes away from Roach to give PC the win
District 4 PC Darlene Compton easily
District 5 LIB Alan MacIssac replay of 2011 election with the same result may have been different with John Jefferies as candidate
District 6 PC James Aylward not as close as everyone thinks. Dunphy hurt by jumping to provincial so quick after mayoral election
District 7 PC Sidney MacEwen connection to Olive will help MacEwen win
District 8 LIB Buck Watts
District 9 LIB Wade
District 10 LIB Rob Mitchell big win Should be cabinet
District 11 LIB Doug Currie
District 12 LIB Richard Brown
District 13 PC Rob Lantz will be a very comfortable win
District 14 LIB Kathleen Casey this one could change as NDP is making a charge here
District 15 LIB Bush Dumville SHould have been an easy Tory pickup that will fall back to the Liberals
District 16 LIB Heath MacDonald with the Ronnie election team behind him and an unknown Tory will be a pretty easy victory
District 17 LIB Valerie Docherty should have been a Tory gain but a weak candidate have sank those chances Tory will still finish 2nd ahead of Bevan Baker ( barely)
District 18 PC Brad Trivers will be close but TRivers will pull it out thanks to his campaigning from 2011 to now
District 19 PC Jamie Fox close but a pick up
District 20 PC Matt MacKay will be helped by the Sheridan factor
District 21 LIB Janice Sherry
District 22- LIB Tina Mundy
District 23- LIB Paula Biggar
District 24 LIB Sonny Gallant Montgomery has impressed for the Tories so far positioning herself for another run in 2019
District 25 LIB Rob Henderson
District 26 LIB Pat Murphy The Tory candidate Griffin is well liked and is closing the gap so this could change
District 27 LIB Hal Perry could go Tory if the Liberals don't stop in fighting


You are close with what I was thinking but some ridings will depend on who is the best organized. I think Bertha Campbell, Roach, and Roberts will win in close races.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 12:35 pm 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: June 13th, 2013, 8:53 am
Posts: 313
I don't see how Liberals can/should win.

Take HST for example. Many probably thought it would be coming at some point, and if it truly does make taxes simpler for businesses and consumers then great.

But the Liberals said they weren't bringing it in last election. Then said they would bring it in at the right time. Then they announced it but had no idea what should be taxed not taxed extra. Why does heating oil get exemption but not other forms of heat (I can understand electricity too hard to keep track of but wood/pellets/propane)? They screwed people over who thought it would have same taxes (and invested in alternates to home heating oil).

Then they said businesses would save money and pass on to consumers which anyone knew was bulls**t (best case would be a price 'freeze' until costs forced prices up again which would only last like 6 months probably). Then 1 week before HST was implemented they announced increasing small business tax. How are small business going to pass on HST savings when they are now taxed more?

The government took on Maritime Electric debt in order to freeze electricity rates for votes. Then they introduced HST which increased electric costs.

If they cut all the bulls**t out of HST and were upfront about everything from start it would not have been such a slap in the face pretending Islanders are stupid.

e-gambiling scandal. $1 million down the drain. Ethics commissioner didn't think having inside info about a company/business that required gov approval and funding would be unethical to invest in it???
How many of these backroom deals that don't go public or fail, make people inside government or friends rich?

They continued with PNP, and lawyers/accountants etc sent the money offshore so CRA couldn't touch it.

Waste of money in hills/waves in borden.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 1:22 pm 
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From Away

Joined: October 29th, 2006, 10:27 pm
Posts: 60
Location: East Prince, PEI
balkoth wrote:

I don't see how Liberals can/should win.

Take HST for example. Many probably thought it would be coming at some point, and if it truly does make taxes simpler for businesses and consumers then great.

But the Liberals said they weren't bringing it in last election. Then said they would bring it in at the right time.



Very obvious that the "right time" was the farthest they could be away from an election date. Ghiz, and now McGhiz, feel that Islanders have short memories, and if they just don't talk about certain topics, that those topics just didn't happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 3:47 pm 
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Tourist

Joined: January 20th, 2015, 2:36 pm
Posts: 23
The Liberals will return to power, all be it with a smaller majority. 3 terms is the limit, 3 terms it will be.

If the Tories hadn't done so much infighting in the last 4 years, they very likely would have formed the government. Lantz has a fight on his hands in his district. A lot of people there weren't happy with his stint as councilor, and will take that out on him, and, the Liberals have an extremely credible candidate pounding the pavement.

Also hearing Myers may have some trouble in his district, grassroots not happy with his handling of Olive Crane.

She is going to be the downfall this election of the tories. Wade will pull one out for the grits, but it will be the last.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 4:05 pm 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: November 16th, 2014, 12:56 am
Posts: 286
If they do return to power they should be prepared for the lawsuits that come with having an illegal leader.


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 4:22 pm 
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Tourist

Joined: January 20th, 2015, 2:36 pm
Posts: 23
Care to expound?

Is Wade an illegal alien?


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 Post subject: Re: Provincial Election 2015
PostPosted: April 21st, 2015, 4:39 pm 
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Almost an Islander

Joined: November 16th, 2014, 12:56 am
Posts: 286
Section 125 of the Criminal Code of Canada.
Section 126 of the PEI Elections Act.


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